Research
The Stable Door Swings Wide: Borderless.xyz’s Read on McKinsey’s 2025 Stablecoin Deep‑Dive
Jul 24, 2025
McKinsey’s July 2025 paper, “The stable door opens: How tokenized cash enables next‑gen payments,” lands at a pivotal moment for digital dollars. The report charts the climb of stablecoins from crypto curiosity to a $27 trillion per year settlement machine and tells a story of how 2025 could mark an irreversible shift in global payments. We broke it down into 5 key macro takeaways.
1. Transaction growth has gone vertical and could overtake legacy rails inside a decade
Stablecoin are now settling at >$27 trillion annually, which is still under 1% of all money flow, but compounding far faster than legacy rails. McKinsey’s trajectory shows stablecoins surpassing incumbent payment volumes “in less than a decade” if growth persists.
Why this matters:.Rapid scaling resets competitive baselines. Deeper liquidity brings network effects, tighter spreads, and lower FX slippage. For Borderless, the takeaway is clear: global liquidity routing, not issuance alone, becomes the moat.
Impact we foresee:
Merchants will on-chain settlement to shave cost-of-acceptance.High-volume B2B corridors (e.g. Asia–LATAM payouts) move off SWIFT+correspondence and onto 24/7 stablecoin rails, forcing banks to reprice intraday liquidity.
Card networks embed stablecoin infrastructure at the scheme level and not just via partnerships.
2. 2025 = the regulatory and tech inflection point
McKinsey flags twin catalysts: the GENIUS Act in the U.S. and MiCA in the EU, plus maturing Layer‑2s, MPC custody, and real‑time on‑chain analytics. Legal clarity meets infrastructure readiness.
Why this matters: A clear legal framework invites new entrants and gives institutions the confidence to engage.
Impact we foresee
U.S. banks will launch white labelled stablecoins or integrate directly with tokenized reserves.
Sub-cent transaction fees via Arbitrum, OP, zkSync unlock micro-transactions and IoT use cases.
3. Use‑cases are expanding: from crypto plumbing to cross‑border lifeline
Yes, stablecoins still dominate crypto settlements but McKinsey stresses three fast growing pillars:
Dollar remittances and SME payments
On-chain capital-market settlement
An emerging-market reserve currency hedge
And yield-bearing tokens (BUIDL, USDY) are turning “digital cash” into something closer to a money market fund.
Why this matters: Utility builds political durability, not speculation. Real-world assets provide a bridge between traditional finance and crypto. They also help stablecoins stay fully backed and capital efficient.
Impact we foresee:
Emerging‑market regulators will confront de‑facto dollarization; compliant on/off‑ramps win licences, shadow markets bleed.
On-chain cash management becomes standard. On-chain cash management becomes standard
4. Banks can’t ignore this and must decide their playbook now
McKinsey outlines three paths for financial institutions: join a multi‑bank consortium stablecoin, partner with a global issuer, or accept deposit flight.
Why this matters: Stablecoins are fully reserved bearer assets. If even 10 % of global deposits tokenized, bank net‑interest margins compress, but payment float risk plummets.
Impact we foresee:
Tier‑1 banks will acquire Web3 custody and wallet stacks outright.
Tier‑2/3 institutions will look to white‑label orchestration platforms
5. Six signposts of a maturing market:watch these metrics, not headlines
McKinsey cites user expectations for instant global payments, regulatory clarity, high‑profile M&A, incumbent responses, critical infra availability, and volume crossing $250 billion/day as the north‑star markers.
Why this matters: Progress will be non‑linear; monitoring these lagging and leading indicators prevents both hype fatigue and complacency.
Impact we foresee:
Liquidity routing algorithms will pivot the moment on‑chain volume outpaces Visa Net.
Regional breakthroughs (e.g. MiCA-style frameworks in Brazil or India) will be tipping points.
Borderless Perspective: Where We Double‑Down
Interoperable Liquidity ≠ Optional
Fragmentation across at geographies is today’s reality. Borderless’s orchestration layer abstracts that complexity, ensuring payments find the cheapest, fastest rail.Compliance‑First APIs Will Define Winners
Institutions want more than custody, they want full-stack compliance.Yield‑Bearing Cash Is the Next Competitive Frontier
When tokens like BUIDL distribute T‑bill returns in‑token, “cash” starts sporting a money‑market yield.Bank Partnerships Trump Direct‑to‑Consumer
We see greater leverage in empowering local banks and fintechs, who already hold licences and retail trust, than in chasing end users ourselves.Contrarian Watch‑Item: CBDCs
A fully interoperable retail CBDC could compress private‑issuer TAM. Yet the history of payments tells us public infrastructure tends to lag on UX, programmability, and cross‑border reach.
